Modeling Drug Development: Improvements Still Needed

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) informs Congress about the costs or revenue changes associated with proposed legislation, a challenging enough task on its own. Sometimes, the CBO is asked to estimate effects beyond budget impact such as the implications of centralized administrative pricing on drug development. Thus, the CBO has worked to establish and improve its modeling capabilities for assessment.  A 2021 CBO working paper described a flexible simulation model, subsequently in 2023 CBO solicited input, received feedback from Congress, and in 2024 released an updated model.