Won't Get Fooled Again: Pandemic Subsidies

Over the years, many expert predictions about the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have proven to be significantly inaccurate. For instance, the CBO's original estimate of 40 million Americans enrolling in the individual market by 2021 turned out to be closer to 20 million. Additionally, the alarmist forecasts in 2018 about the repercussions of ending the individual mandate tax penalty and defunding cost-sharing reduction (CSR) subsidies turned out to be exaggerated. Given this track record, policymakers have valid reason to approach new ACA predictions with skepticism. As experienced actuaries, we have lived a continuous cycle of assurance that “these catastrophic projections are overblown” as repeated dire forecasts pertaining to ACA-related policy changes have historically failed to materialize.