This study provides some of the first rigorous evidence on how taxing e-cigs impacts smoking cessation among adults. It finds strong evidence that higher e-cig taxes increase adult smoking rates and reduce quits. This conclusion implies that e-cigs are a likely substitute for conventional cigarettes among current smokers.
Specifically, the 95 percent e-cig tax in Minnesota, the first such tax increase in the nation, led to a decrease in cigarette smoking cessation by about 1.14 percentage points -- approximately a 5 percent increase in relative smoking participation. In fact, virtually all of the increase in current smoking prevalence in Minnesota is associated with the e-cig tax and the associated decrease in successful quits.
