Medicare-for-All Costs

Last week, a group of scholars from the Urban Institute (UI) released cost estimates for several alternative approaches to health care reform, including an updated estimate of the cost of Medicare for All (M4A) in essentially the form proposed by Democratic presidential candidates Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The UI team found that M4A would add $34 trillion to federal spending over its first 10 years. Several people have asked me how the UI team's estimate compares with my own that M4A would add at least $32.6 trillion to federal budget costs over its first 10 years, and most likely substantially more (between $32.6 trillion and $38.8 trillion). To help with comparing the two estimates, I will first offer some general observations and then some specific numbers.