Earlier this week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published a comprehensive analysis of the American Health Care Act, which is currently being considered by the House of Representatives. While many reactions to the CBO analysis focused on how the AHCA would affect insurance coverage, the bill's effects on individual market insurance premiums have also received considerable attention.
In its report, CBO estimated that average individual market premiums under the AHCA would be 10 percent lower in 2026 than they would be under current law (before considering subsidies). However, as some observers have noted, this estimated change incorporates changes in the generosity of the plans being offered on the individual market, as well as a shift in the composition of individual market enrollment toward younger individuals, who pay lower premiums. The CBO estimate does not, therefore, answer the question of greatest interest, which is how CBO expects the AHCA to affect average premiums for a given generosity of coverage and a fixed population of individual market enrollees.
