In the widespread coverage of Zika, many news outlets (including this one) have reported on Brazil's terrifying surge in birth defects following the arrival of this mysterious virus.
According to Brazil's health ministry, since last year doctors have reported some 4,000 cases of microcephaly, a devastating birth defect that's characterized by a shrunken head and incomplete brain development. That's much higher the usual number of cases in pre-Zika Brazil — a very worrisome data point.
But what if that number is wildly wrong? What if the number of microcephaly cases in Brazil is actually much smaller?
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