Projected Growth of Accountable Care Organizations

By comparing the projections in the different scenarios we are able to gain valuable insights about how different factors influence the growth of accountable care. In the near future the financial performance of existing ACOs will be the most important driver of accountable care growth. Should existing ACOs have negative financial results the number of ACO-covered lives could decrease by 64 million from the baseline scenario. The Medicare Access and Chip Reauthorization Act of 2015 (MACRA) has had a substantial positive impact on the growth of accountable care contributing an estimated 37 million more ACO-covered lives by 2020. Closely monitoring these factors will provide greater clarity about the future growth of the accountable care movement.