Little Evidence That Cheaper Insurance Raises Wages

A close review of the evidence reveals something discomfiting: Economists have convincing arguments about why, in theory, the Cadillac tax should raise wages. But when it comes to actual data -- real-life examples that show the wage-premium trade-off is happening -- evidence is sparse. One 1999 summary of the research put it this way: "The typical estimates [of the wage-premium trade-off] are either wrong-signed, insignificant, or both."

Or, as a paper published this year stated bluntly: "Many studies fail to find any relationship."